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Evryone Posts

We like commitment

We like to follow footy teams, and we choose to vote for the same political party our entire lives, no matter what.

We commit to our partner and kids, and for some of us, our job.

Countries are getting in on the act and committing to fixing climate change.

Posh people wear little flag brooches to demonstrate the cause they align with…

There is an opportunity for regular folk to commit to an ideal.

Shock works great, so imagine this:

Every-time a rich person purchases something, they pay above the going rate. On purpose, with great fanfare. They get to show off.

But they commit to doing so. It becomes a club, a collective, a body. A movement.

Maybe one day we will hear someone say “would you like to pay extra” when you go to pay, and you wear the brooch.

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Biden: Billionaires Tax

This keeps getting proposed in many countries, and never happens. Maybe, finally, it will, despite:

  • Is it the shadow government / deep state?
  • Or donor pressure?
  • Or admitting that the capitalist dream is flawed?

The Washington Post, citing five sources and an internal administration document, said the “billionaire minimum income tax” plan would establish a 20% minimum tax rate on all American households worth more than $100m.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/mar/26/joe-biden-billionaires-tax

I like that simplicity. No ways around it – however your income is derived, at that level of income, you absolutely have to pay 20% income tax, which is way below what the middle class pay.

Impossible to argue against philosophically.

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Spending, Interest Rates and Inequality

Of course economics is incredibly complicated and a bit chaotic. But sometimes reducing things to their most simplistic can be informative.

The standard short version of how capitalism works is this: Workers get paid, and with that money they buy the goods that all workers have created, and that pays for costs of producing the goods.

It is circular. It works. Until someone is taking more than their fair share, and removes it from the economy by storing their wealth somewhere. This happens when increased productivity is not matched by increased wages, and the rich get more of the profits.

That means that there are more goods to be purchased than wages can pay for, because some money has been removed from the circular economy by rich people. Elon Musk doesn’t spend billions a year on goods.

To make up for that shortfall of cash to buy the goods we create, we borrow. 40% of Americans (the lowest earners) are spending more in any year than what they earn.

For this to keep happening, interest rates need to keep going lower and lower. So interest rates and inequality may be connected.

Fixing inequality means increasing the income of workers so that they get a share of the productivity increases they are part of. More income means higher interest rates to control spending, and meanwhile inequality decreases.

See this NYT article for some similar thoughts

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“Just Deserts” on a Desert Island

desert island – a remote tropical island, typically an uninhabited one

meritocracy: a system, organization, or society in which people are chosen and moved into positions of success, power, and influence on the basis of their demonstrated abilities and merit

So, if Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos suddenly arrives naked on a desert island – alone – will their verve and smarts make them rich?

What if they arrive on an island, that has a dozen people but no technology?

10,000 people and no technology?

5 people and they have learned how to kill rats with a trap.

How many people does he need (non-billionaires) and how many generations of technology (that he had no part in), to even start to become rich and superior?

The very rich, no matter how smart or hard-working, needed all of us to get there, one way or another. All of us. One person less would mean (on average) less success.

So feel free to ask a billionaire how successful they could have been on a desert island.

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Revolutions and Equality

It is so convenient to write this from one of the least likely lands to ever see a popular uprising – Australia.

There are two ways we can reduce inequality – government action or populist movements causing government action.

An overthrowing of Putin and the oligarchs would be a signal to the rest of the world’s governments that should be more honest, and more equitable.

It is really hard to predict which country will be next in removing dictators or becoming more democratic, but we know that people have a trigger point, which is when they see no other way of resolving things. Regime change doesn’t happen because of declining GDP numbers, it comes from enough people experiencing sufficient pain and difficulties to take action.

It looks like the Middle East is ready for some new uprisings, and social media is way more persuasive than a decade ago, so expect radical change, soon, in at least a few countries there.

Hollowed out by corruption and mismanagement and buffeted by adverse economic conditions, authoritarian governments in the Middle East are struggling to deliver the socioeconomic benefits that once pacified their publics. Armed actors, whether national security services or private militias, are playing an ever more important role in many countries—both economically and politically. Ordinary people, meanwhile, are being squeezed by growing violence on the one hand and dwindling resources on the other—just as they were prior to the Arab uprisings of 2011, and in Iraq and Syria, prior to the rise of the Islamic State.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2022-03-22/middle-east-brink-again

One way of looking at the potential for an uprising is the ratio of armed forces to citizens. Too few forces and an uprising is easier to achieve. Too many and the military can turn on their leaders, because they have the power.

Asia and the Middle East dominate the rankings, with Greece the only odd one where the numbers are more than 6 per 1000 active military (30 countries). The United States is 51st with 4.2 per 1000. Interesting the lowest numbers are mostly in Africa which might need some explaining… although with Haiti at zero I suspect they just have a different names for government workers with guns, like police.

So based on low numbers, and inequality, these are my picks for uprising in the near future:

  • South Africa
  • Papua New Guinea
  • East Timor
  • Nepal
  • Venezuela

It is more likely to be in the Middle East, but that cannot be foretold by numbers.

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Small Town Sway

I figure a reason for the political divisions in the US is the elected officials (who of course get to proclaim things in the press) who don’t require too many votes.

Like the banning of a book.

When you have 1 country x 52 states x 50 counties x 30 elected officials… multiplied by how everyone these days has a voice… shit will rise to the top, and biased news services find their fodder.

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Presidential Medal

Something the US is missing – non-financial rewards for those who contribute to society.

The UK gives various honors, the most well-known of which is a knighthood. The number of people receiving UK / Commonwealth honors is extensive. The only medals in the US are in the military.

If people can gain respect and prestige outside of financial meritocracy, it will help to end inequality. But while the only reward is rocket ships and super yachts…

How Would It Work?

The categories should be wide and the levels of reward deep. The Presidential Medal would be on par with a knighthood or Nobel prize. But other awards could occur, at state levels perhaps.

The system is very non-partisan, and favoritism according to which party is in power happens, but is rare, and inconsequential. In the UK:

 The committees are composed of senior civil servants and independent experts in specific fields. The majority of the honours committees are non-civil servants.

Each subcommittee oversees nominations for its specialised area: Arts and Media; Community, Voluntary and Local Services; Economy; Education; Health; Parliamentary and Political Service; Science and Technology; Sport; and State. 

The individual committees assess the nominations and pass the nominations to the Main Honours Committee, whose members select the final list of nominations that are passed to the Queen by the Prime Minister.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honours_Committee

An easy example of who would get a Presidential Medal would be a Republican president awarding it to Jimmy Carter for his work in fighting homelessness. Everyone would applaud that, and it could only reduce divisiveness in the US.

The Media would then be able to to say Presidential Medalist Jimmy Carter in the same way as they feel compelled to obsessively tell us that Elon Musk happens to be a billionaire.

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